(QUEEN CITY NEWS) — NASA has upped the chances of impact of an asteroid currently orbiting in deep space.
The object at hand, 2024 YR4 was discovered in December 2024 during its most recent flyby of the Earth, with a diameter or roughly 180 feet. Recent orbital calculations have increased the chance of Earth impact to 1 in 44 (2.3%) on Dec. 22, 2032.
Who is monitoring the skies for asteroids like this one? Well, it is a relatively new department within NASA called the Planetary Defense Coordination Office. This office was created in 2016 with the explicit task from Congress to find and track every asteroid at least 140 meters in size. To date, 98% of all asteroid and comets at least 1 kilometer in size have been found in the solar system.
So, is it time to panic? In a word, no, as it is likely further observations of 2024 YR4 will drop to the impact chances to zero. But if the improbable does happen, would a potential impact look like? It could resemble very much like the Tunguska Event of 1908 in Russia where an asteroid of similar size exploded over Siberia. It is estimated that 2024 YR4 would have the energy of roughly a 10-megaton bomb, which if impacted in a populated area could be devastating.
NASA has already potential interception techniques for asteroids hazardous to Earth with the DART program where an impactor was sent to hit an asteroid and change its path. So, while its unlikely, there are plans to deal with this asteroid if impact chances do go up for 2024 YR4.
