WASHINGTON – Former President Donald J. Trump holds a narrow lead over Vice President Kamala Harris in a new presidential poll released Wednesday by ActiVote. The survey, conducted between October 3 and October 8, shows Trump ahead by 1.2 percentage points among likely voters, within the poll’s 3.1% margin of error.
The poll highlights divisions in voter demographics, with Trump showing stronger support among rural and suburban residents, while Harris leads in urban areas. Age and gender gaps are also evident; younger voters (ages 18-49) prefer Harris, while older voters (50 and above) favor Trump. The survey indicates Harris leads among women, while Trump has more support among men.
Racial divides in voter preference persist, with Trump leading among White voters, while Harris is backed by 73% of Black voters and 59% of Latino voters. Differences in education and income levels show Harris with a slight advantage among lower-income voters and those with a college education, while Trump leads among the highest income earners and voters with some college education.
Both candidates maintain strong support within their respective political bases, with Harris securing 96% of Democratic voters and Trump securing 95% of Republicans. Trump also leads among centrist voters, according to the poll’s breakdown by political spectrum.
ActiVote’s daily tracking data suggests fluctuating support since President Biden’s exit from the race, with Harris initially gaining ground but losing momentum in recent weeks. The latest poll reflects a tightening race ahead of the 2024 election.
